KBC — Express note — 3Q25 results — Execution Drag Persists Through 9M25 EN

Behind guidance, but signs of recovery

3Q25 revenue climbed to VND1.3tn (+132% QoQ; +41% YoY). 3Q25 PAT rose +55% YoY but declined -22% QoQ. The QoQ drop was mainly due to (1) the high base following the 2Q25 COGS reversal for IP leasing, which resulted in negative COGS of VND117bn; and (2) lower financial income (-45% QoQ) and higher financial expenses (+112% QoQ).

Improved handovers in 3Q25 but YTD P&L run rate is behind target. 9M25 revenue reached VND5tn (+153% YoY) and PAT was VND1.56tn (+2.9x YoY), meeting just 50% of KBC’s 2025 revenue target and 49% of PAT guidance.

Leasing momentum remained soft amid tariff uncertainties. KBC leased 20ha in 3Q25, bringing 9M25 leased area to 105ha — 50% of the 2025 target. The backlog also reached 105ha at end-3Q25, comprising 25ha at Nam Son Hap Linh IP (Bac Ninh), 30ha at Trang Due 3 IP (Hai Phong), and 50ha at Que Vo Expanded IP (Bac Ninh).

IP delivery outlook: KBC expects to deliver 25ha in 4Q25, while the remaining backlog will likely shift out to 1H26 due to land-handover delays tied to the provincial merger process.

Potential new IP lease contract: In Oct 2025, KBC signed a 10ha MOU for a 200MW data center project in Tan Phu Trung IP (HCMC). Management expects to sign the leasing contract and deliver the land in 2026.

Residential real estate revenue reached VND285bn in 3Q25 (+45% YoY) vs zero recognition in 2Q25. This was attributable to two social housing projects: Nenh Town (Bac Giang) and Evergreen Trang Due (Hai Phong).

Soft residential pre-sales in 9M25: KBC sold 5ha GFA of social housing, fulfilling 25% of the company’s full-year target (i.e., 20ha for social housing).

Project execution progressing across key sites. In 3Q25, KBC continued to advance land compensation and clearance works. Kim Thanh 2 IP (Hai Phong) has cleared 80ha and is targeting construction commencement in 2026. Trang Due 3 IP has completed the first-phase clearance of 200ha and is awaiting the construction permit. Trang Cat UA obtained LUR certificates for 200ha of low-rise land, enabling sales readiness. For the Trump International project, KBC is currently prioritizing land-clearing activities.

Inventory edged up to VND25tn (+6% QoQ; +90% YoY), driven by Trang Cat UA (+VND387bn QoQ), the Trump International project (+VND297bn), and Nenh Town social housing (+VND273bn).

Valuation remains below industry median. The stock is trading at a TTM P/B of 1.3x (vs. industry median 1.9x) and a TTM P/E of 17.3x (vs. 12.5x). Our rating remains suspended due to changes within our research team.

For the complete report, please access here:

KBC — Express note — 3Q25 results — Execution Drag Persists Through 9M25 EN