From The Ground Up — DKRA Property Visit Note

Event: We attended an analyst briefing with property firm DKRA in Ho Chi Minh City on January 9. The firm presented their views on the property market trends in 2018 and outlined their expectations for 2019.

In this inaugural edition of From The Ground Up, we present a brief summary what was new and/or interesting from the briefing. The meeting takeaways in this and subsequent notes in this “company visit” format are based on the viewpoint of the firm that we visited, which at times may differ from our own opinions. We include our own opinions only in the final paragraph.

Company profile: DKRA is a major property brokerage based in southern Vietnam. The firm also offers services including research, project development consulting, real estate valuation, and sales services.

Land and townhouse market in 2018

• DKRA reports that both supply and demand decreased in 2018.
• Secondary transactions significantly decreased at the end of 2018.
• Selling price increased by 10-15% compared to 2017.
• This price increase occurred primarily during 1H18, with limited change in 2H18.

Apartment market in 2018

• Both supply and demand declined, but a mismatch emerged.
• Supply was skewed to the mid-tier and high-end segments. See the left-hand margin table titled (“Supply in 2018”) for a full breakdown.
• The luxury segment supply reached 1,828 units in 2018, up 397% YoY.

Outlook for 2019

• Land lots continues to be the first choice of homebuyers (involve homebuyers with real demand and speculator).
• Supply of land lots and apartments will decrease slightly compared to 2018.
• Market scarcity of apartments, especially in the affordable segment, is likely to be a feature.

Our view: The market has established a new price level. Supply is adjusting and transaction volumes are reacting in line with that adjustment. Overall, we think that this process should result in improved market sustainability going forward. We agree with DKRA’s opinion that the affordable and mid-end segments are likely to continue to exhibit the highest demand. We expect this trend to persist for the next several years at least

Please see the link for the full report:Vietnam From The Ground Up — Property Consultant Visit Note

Analyst: Tam Nguyen, tam.nguyen@yuanta.com.vn