Strategy Weekly: Breakout delayed?

Weekly — Mar 29

The VNI’s 2.7% WoW decline could have been worse: as of Friday’s intraday low, the mainboard was down nearly 5% from the prior week’s close. A combination of global financial market conditions (i.e., China credit / commodities pricing / USD strength) has eroded our confidence that the mainboard would reach 1300 points by the end of April, an expectation we have been stating since early in 4Q20. The market will likely remain buoyant relative to regional peers, but we now believe that investors may need to wait until 3Q21 for a sustained re-rating to new record highs.