16/03/2020 - 08:45
Yuanta Vietnam Weekly Market Round-Up-Mar 16
|All of the VN30 components fell during the week, as Vietnam caught up (or down) to the performance of regional peers.
Chart-of-the-week: The market’s trailing PE ratio of 11.8x is now 16% below its ten-year average and the lowest since February 2016.
Regional View: Brace for a bumpy road, advises Yuanta’s global macroeconomist Chen-Hui Yen. Reporting on global credit and liquidity conditions, Dr. Yen argues that hopes for a V-shaped bounce in global economic activity and markets are unrealistic; he reckons that the recovery will look more like the Nike “swoosh” symbol.
Market Outlook: We think the short term newsflow is extremely likely to remain negative for several weeks as the outbreak continues to play out across the globe. We fail to see how Europe and the US can be expanding in this environment. A global recession can’t be a particularly good thing for a country with 200%-plus exports to GDP.
Such conditions suggest a focus on quality balance sheets, cash flow, and management, as well as a domestic focus. In terms of sectors, quality consumer staples may continue to outperform in the short term. Infrastructure plays could also be interesting.