13/04/2020 - 08:59
Weekly Market Wrap: April 13
Vietnam stocks rallied sharply in the week ending April 10, with a strong 55% WoW recovery in turnover and positive market breadth (276 gainers vs 79 losers among the VNI components). However, not all technical indicators were bullish, as foreign investors continued to sell down the market (by another US$21 million).
Index, Flows, and FX Performance
VNINDEX: 758 (+8.0% WoW / -21.1% YTD / -22.8% YoY)
HNINDEX: 106 (+8.5% WoW / +3.6% YTD / -1.2% YoY)
UPCOM Index: 50.6 (+3.0% WoW / -10.5% YTD / -10.5% YoY)
Average daily turnover: US$185mn (+55% WoW)
Foreigners net sold US$21 million of the 3 indexes’ constituents.
VND:USD rate: 23,436 (+7bp WoW / -112bp YTD / -101bp YoY)
VN30 stocks almost all increased WoW, with only EIB (-0.3%) posting a small decline. VHM (+16%) made the single largest positive contribution, coinciding with the approval of deferred tax payments for several industries, including property developers. MSN (+15%) was another noteworthy positive index contributor during the week.
O&G/Energy in the spotlight. GAS (+13.3% WoW but still -28% YTD), POW (+10.8% WoW / -25.5% YTD), and PVD (+24% WoW / -38% YTD) bounced sharply. O&G names could be supported by the weekend oil production cut agreement from OPEC-plus if it holds, although power firms may be pressured by EVN’s electricity fee cuts.
Vietnam was among the best performers regionally last week.
Market outlook. It was a welcome reprieve, but whether the rally can be sustained may depend on a return of foreign buyers. FINIs have been net sellers almost continuously since last August, but a recovery of global risk appetites and Vietnam’s attractive macro story (and now-cheap valuations) could catalyze a reversal of this trend – this might help to convince us that the market has bottomed sustainably.
